A few more hours and the Sweet 16 will begin. Let’s have a quick look at the 8 games that will be played in the next two days and underline the strength and weaknesses for each team in each specific match-up.
Midwest
#3 Oregon – #7 Michigan (Thursday 7.10 pm)
The Wolverines are a team on a mission and are determined to keep their streak of 6 consecutive wins (4 in the Big Ten tournament, 2 in the Ncaa tournament) open. It is hard to match with them because Michigan has two 6-10 PF who can play outside the three point arc. That will force Dillon Brooks to do some extra work on offense and defense. Besides, Michigan improved on an already great 9.2 turnover-per-game by having 10 combined in the first two games. Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin will have to find a way to slow down Tyler Dorsey, who scored 51 points in the tournament so far on 18-of-23 shooting, including 6-of-9 from beyond the arc.
#1 Kansas – #4 Purdue (Thursday 9.40 pm)
This is a particularly bad match-up for the new favorite to win the title because the Jayhawks have no answers for Caleb Swanigan. If the Purdue star plays center, Landen Lucas will struggle guarding him behind the three point line, if he plays at PF, Josh Jackson lacks the physical tools to slow him down in the post. On the other hand, Swanigan cannot win on his own, and coach Matt Painter has to hope Vince Edwards will be able to help. The Boilermakers will also have to slow down an offense that scored 190 points in the last 2 games. And the game will be played in Kansas City, arguably not the most neutral location.
Caleb Swanigan (Purdue)
West
#1 Gonzaga – #4 West Virginia (Thursday 7.40 pm)
Will Mark Few finally reach the Final Four? He will have to go through West Virginia‘s press zone first, not exactly the kind of match-up the people in Spokane wished to get. The Zags, however, have the experience and William Nigel-Goss playmaking to do it. Besides, having one of the best defenses in the nation (61 Opponent PPG) will help: if the Mountaineers do not score, then they do not have the time to set their full court defense, which makes things easier. Gonzaga also has the size to counter West Virginia’s frontcourt in Przemek Karnowski. Just ignore the fact that none of the last 26 teams that reached the tournament with a 0 or 1 loss during the season won the title. The last team to do it was Bobby Knight’s 1976 Indiana team.
#11 Xavier – #2 Arizona (Thursday 10.10 pm)
The high seed Cinderella should be considered a common sight in the Sweet 16, since Xavier reached this stage for the fourth time in eight years. The Musketeers have nothing to lose in this match-up against former coach Sean Miller, who is looking for his first Final Four appearance and might feel the pressure of expectations. Xavier will try to stop the Wildcats offense with heavy doses of zone and will hope Lauri Markkanen runs into foul trouble quickly and will be kept out of the game as long as possible, because they really have no answers to his game. But if they had to stay close until the final stages of the game, Trevon Bluiett might do his magic once again.
Lauri Markkanen (Arizona)
South
#7 South Carolina – #3 Baylor (Friday 7.30 pm)
This is the only regional with no #1 and #2 and in theory Baylor has a clear path to the Final Four, but the same has been said for Duke and we all know how that went against South Carolina. The Gamecocks will not repeat the 65-point half they had against the Blue Devils, but will rely on Sindarius Thornwell to score. However, it will not be enough and Thornwell will need PJ Dozier and Duane Notice to be a factor on offense to have a chance. As for the Bears, Johnathan Motley is a problem for any team and South Carolina frontcourt is not particularly talented, but Baylor is turnover-prone and SC is a tough defensive team that might find some luck in encouraging chaos in Baylor’s playmaking. Mostly, it will be on Manu Lecomte: the Belgian is responsible for plenty of those turnovers, but he also makes the big shots.
#8 Wisconsin – #4 Florida (Friday 10.00 pm)
One of the most interesting games between two solid defensive teams who run their offenses at different speeds: the Gators run in transition, while the Badgers rely on a more cerebral approach. Devin Robinson is having himself a great tournament, but he will need Kasey Hill and KeVaughn Allen to play better than what they did against Virginia. Coach Greg Gard can play 4 seniors with Final Four experience who are determined to finish their career in the best possible way. Nigel Hayes increased all of his numbers and he is averaging 16.8 points and 9.8 rebounds in the last four games. Hayes and Ethan Happ can feast in the paint against a Florida team missing John Egbunu defensive presence under the rim.
Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin)
East
#1 North Carolina – #4 Butler (Friday 7.10 pm)
North Carolina is the second favorite to win the title but they haven’t been playing all that well so far and the Tar Heels dodged a real bullet against Arkansas. When it comes to UNC, it is pointless to talk about a frontcourt battle but ankle issues are limiting Joel Berry and most of North Carolina’s offense goes through him. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, had an easy path in the tournament so far and will rely on Kelan Martin to generate enough offense to give themselves a chance for the upset, but their frontcourt will have to at least put up a fight.
#2 Kentucky – #3 UCLA (Friday 9.40 pm)
Potentially the most entertaining game of the Sweet 16, certainly the one with the highest number of Nba prospects on the floor. UCLA is a better team, while Kentucky at times seems to play like a bunch of young, talented players who don’t really know what they are doing and ignore their teammates. That’s when coach John Calipari relies on more experienced players, but the drop in talent when they step on the court is obvious. Kentucky’s freshmen must have a big game, and if De’Aaron Fox had to lose his personal duel against Lonzo Ball, Malik Monk will have to carry the team. Unfortunately, Monk has not been playing well in the tournament: 6-of-21 from the field, 2-of-11 from beyond the arc. He has been labeled a streaky shooter in this part of his career, and the bad streak might end here. The Wildcats will also have to defend: the Bruins have 46 assists to 9 turnovers in the tournament, bothering their playmaking seems to be a good starting point.
Lonzo Ball (UCLA) vs De’Aaron Fox (Kentucky)
