Are you one of the 70 million people that filled out a bracket? Well, if you are not Donald Trump and did not decide to ignore the most exciting tournament in the world, here’s what you have to know not to have your bracket busted after the first round.
For starters, there is 1 in 9.223.372.036.854.775.808 chance to nail the perfect bracket, so let’s forget about that. Before going through the games that have the highest risk of an upset, there are a few things numbers can tell. For example, #1 seeds are 128-0 against #16 seeds and in the last 40 years the average margin of victory has been 25 points. It is extremely unlikely the #15 seed will get the best of the #2 seed (120-8), but we all remember what happened last year with Michigan State. One of the most common upsets is #5 vs #12, with the latter winning 36% of these match-ups. And if you want to get weirder, teams with dog-like mascottes win 57% of the games played against teams with cat-like mascottes.
This is March so anything can happen. Mascottes have to be factored in the Madness. Let’s see which games in the first round are more likely to be an upset.
East
#4 Florida – #13 East Tennessee State: If TJ Cromer has one of those nights where he just can’t be stopped, the Gators are goners. Without John Egbunu Florida is certainly weaker in the paint and under the boards. Medium Alert.
#5 Virginia – #12 UNC Wilmington: In 2016 the Seahawks made life miserable for Duke. This is the same team and they will face a team not as good as Duke. It will be a great game between the best defense in the nation (55 OppPPG for the Cavaliers) and the 10th best offense (85 PPG for UNCU). We choose offense. Medium Alert.
#6 SMU – #11 Usc/Providence: The AAC proved the Mustangs are in great shape and might be for real, but the Trojans are rolling right now. Low Alert.
L’esultanza dei Buccaneers di East Tennessee State dopo la vittoria nella Southern
West
#3 Florida State – #14 FGCU:The Florida rivalry will play out in Orlando, and who would have thought of that? FSU is the better and less reliable of the two, while Dunk City seems to be back in 2013 shape. Medium Alert.
#6 Maryland – #11 Xavier: Despite missing Edmond Sumner, the Musketeers almost sneaked into the Big East final, while Maryland is a very young team that is forced to rely too much on Melo Trimble for its own good. High Alert.
7# Saint Mary’s – #10 VCU: This is a common upset slot. The Rams’ defense should finish on top of an offense that tends to black out from time to time. If Jock Landale had to get in foul trouble, it might be over very soon for the Gaels. Medium Alert.
Marc Eddy Norelia, uno dei giocatori chiave di FGCU
Midwest
#4 Purdue – #13 Vermont: The Boilermarkers haven’t won a tournament game since 2012, the Catamounts have an open 21-game win streak. None of the team is ranked higher than 110, per Kenpom, and considering the disastrous outcome of the last two years in the tournament, coach Matt Painter is definitely worried. Low Alert.
#6 Creighton – #11 Rhode Island: Is it better to have a talented freshman in Justin Patton or a grizzled veteran scorer in EC Matthews to lead the team? Without Maurice Watson the BlueJays are just not the same team, while URI has plenty of momentum coming into this game after winning the Atlantic 10. High Alert.
#7 Michigan – Oklahoma State #10: This is mostly the Jawun Evans bandwagon talking, because the Wolverines are hyped up after winning the Big Ten tournament. The Cowboys have a great offense and an awful defense, but if they had to find some sort of balance for one night, they might make it. Low Alert.
I giocatori di Rhode Island con il trofeo dell’Atlantic 10
South
#5 Minnesota – #12 Middle Tennessee:This is an easy one. The Blue Raiders advanced against Michigan State last year, #2 seed and favorite for the title at the time, so why shouldn’t they advance against a much weaker #5 seed? High Alert.
#6 Cincinnati – #11 Kansas State: Cincy got some bad luck in drawing a match-up against the Wildcats. They will need their defense to squeeze the life out of Wesley Iwundu to get the best of a tough team like Kansas State. Either Troy Caupain finds the kind of player that is within him, or this is a sure upset. Medium Alert.
#7 Dayton – #10 Wichita State: The Flyers are an experienced, tough team. But they will be playing against a team that is 5th in the nation in rebounds per game, has +20 NetRtg and shoots 40% from beyond the arc. By far the best game in the first round. Medium Alert.
As for the second round: Louisville will have its hands full against the winner of Oklahoma State-Michigan, while Kentucky might run into some unexpected trouble with the winner of Dayton-Whichita State. If the Badgers win their tough first round game against Virginia Tech, they will run into Villanova in the second round.
